Weather forecasts and probability

Over the last few years there has been some talk of the Met Office including probabilities with their weather forecasts e.g. “there’s a 75% chance of rain today”. It’s always seemed like a good idea to me. I suspect that most people can handle a 50/50 forecast and wont end up getting caught in some sort of Schrödinger’s umbrella paralysis.

So now the Met Office have devised a little web game to get some idea of how people will interpret these probabilities. They say that this will help them work out how to communicate forecast confidence.

It’s kind of fun. I scored 205 on my first go (“Red hot meteorologist” apparently, whoo hooo!) but that seems way short of the top of their leaderboard, which is around 370! I think I’m playing it too safe – maybe you get the big points by overstating your confidence in forecasts. I’m not sure if that’s a good message!

PS Apologies for the long pause in blogging: conference, holiday, deadlines, writing, blah, blah, blah.

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2 Responses to “Weather forecasts and probability”

  1. hengistmcstone Says:

    Ive scored £255 and am Red Hot Meteorologist too. And I managed it without all that studying Andy. BTW Wheres the leaderboard ?cant find it.

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