Snow again.

I wrote a post last winter about how the snow doesn’t mean that climate change is over.

Well, it’s snowing again.

And the warming on a global scale still hasn’t stopped:

October 2010 temperature anomalies relative to the period 1951-1980 from the NASA GISS webpage.

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18 Responses to “Snow again.”

  1. Oxbridge Prat Says:

    You have, I assume, noticed that most of the warming GISS reports occurs in places where there are almost no actual temperature measurements. Is that just a coincidence?

  2. BillyBob Says:

    Andy, if you look at the Vostok ice cores, for the last 400,000 years it has warmed every 100,000 years and then stopped warming and plunged 10C back to the ice age.

    It is supposed to be warm now. AGW might be a valid theory it wasn’t supposed to be warm.

    It will stop soon, and most of the planets population will then starve to death.

    • andyrussell Says:

      Thanks for the comment.

      I thought that the most similar situation to our own in the long ice core records was Termination V, which occurred around 420,000 years ago. You can see it in the EPICA Dome C data here.

      If so, maybe things aren’t as bleak as you suggest: we might have another 10000 years before the next glacial.

      • BillyBob Says:

        Its even worse if you look at the Greend land Ice Core.

        http://mclean.ch/climate/Ice_cores.htm

        The temperatures warmed 10,500 years ago wiht pretty high peaks, then one good peak 3200 years ago, and the temperautre peaks have been getting lower and lower.

        I think this interglacial is done. Within 1000 years it will be back to an ice age.

      • andyrussell Says:

        Do any of the Greenland cores go back to Termination V though? That’s the best analogue of our own situation, Milankovitch-wise.

        Of course, the other interesting thing about the ice cores and other long records is that the that current CO2 concentration has not been seen for a long time. We’re out on a bit of limb here!

    • BillyBob Says:

      Termination V is not relevant Andy.

      Milankovich peaks are very sharp and end very abruptly.

      • andyrussell Says:

        Well, the plot you link to shows exactly why Termination V is relevant: you have to go back 420 000 years before ε and e are anything like today.

        Whilst this isn’t proof that we’re in for a long interglacial, it certainly doesn’t imply that a glacial is imminent.

        Milankovitch cycles

  3. DeNihilist Says:

    Andy, can you tell me why GISS uses 51-80 as their basic? I always felt that 66-95 would be a more representative baseline, half of a cold period and half of a warm period.

  4. Steve Crook Says:

    [oops, I tried editing my own response but I seem to have deleted your comment, sorry. Can’t remember exactly what it said but it was an interesting point about inadequate climate records and the Jones et al. (1990) Nature paper on UHI being a bit of a gift to the sceptic/denier side of the argument – AR]

    • andyrussell Says:

      I completely agree that the climate community’s data is not half as good as it could be. That said, I’m amazed that we have as much as we do. Loads of pre-1990s data must be gone because it wasn’t archived properly, people moved on and no-one anticipated how important it would become.

      I suppose the other way of looking at this is that it’s brilliant that we have what we do. And it’s all down to some really hard work of people like Jones that these records are available.

      There’s a nice series of blog posts on the Protons for Breakfast blog (here, here and here with some background here) that try to simplify one of the issues to do with recovering old data.

  5. Britain’s snow and climate change « Our Clouded Hills Says:

    […] This post is from January 2010. I put a temperature anomaly plot from October 2010 here and I’ll do one for November 2010 as soon as the data is […]

  6. Why has this winter been so cold in Europe? « Our Clouded Hills Says:

    […] cold in Europe? By andyrussell I’ve written a couple of posts recently looking at the cold UK weather in context and how snow […]

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